Wednesday, October 12, 2011

The Guardian Cub problem

No, this post isn't moralizing about the ethic implications about "buying" wow gold.  Blizzard is adding it to the game, so we might as well deal with it's existence.  This post is about the value in wow gold of the Guardian Cub.

Let's take a look at Disgusting Oozeling for example.  The Undermine Journal says the value is between 7-8k on my server.  Which for a fairly rare drop is almost cheap.  Speculation has the Guardian Cub going for about 10k.  But why?  People point to the price of gold on the black market of about $10 for 1000 gold.  Well, that makes sense.  But is the item itself going to be worth 10k gold?

The rarity of the item is going to be close to nil, since anyone at all with $10 can have one.  Unlimited supply is going to kill the value of this pet.  Prices should be high initially for collectors, etc.  The cost should do nothing but come down a few days/weeks later once the newness has worn off, and people looking to trade their real world dollars into Warcraft gold will have to lower expectations.

That being said, if I see one on the AH on day one for a few thousand gold, I'll grab it and try to mark it up quite a bit.  If it doesn't sell, at least my collector can use it.

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